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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Gent 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Gent 1-2 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 2.23 xG and Kortrijk 0.99 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gent fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kortrijk outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Kortrijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 64% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 14%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 49%, Kortrijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Kortrijk's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights