Gent 0-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gent at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Conference League Play-off Group - 1 sees Genk travel to GHELAMCO-arena to take on Gent. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gent stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at GHELAMCO-arena, Gent have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Genk have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Gent have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Gent trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Genk trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 44% versus Genk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 47% | Genk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.96 xG and Genk 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.284 / defence 0.870 | Genk attack 0.930 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.307. Gent carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Gent's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Gent games / 34 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 58% | Draw 22% | Genk 20%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Genk 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Gent (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gent 50% | Genk 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 1 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 58% | Draw 22% | Genk 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Gent 1.96 / Genk 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.284 / def 0.870 | Genk attack 0.930 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Gent (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Genk xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Genk kick off?
Gent vs Genk kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Genk?
Gent 0 - 1 Genk.
Where is Gent vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs Genk part of?
Gent vs Genk is a Conference League Play-off Group - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 58% chance of winning, Genk a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gent and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and Genk in?
Gent (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Genk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.28) and Genk's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
58%
1.71
22%
4.61
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Gent xG
Total xG
3.02
1.06
Genk xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
3%
35.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Gent and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Gent and 1.06 for Genk, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Gent have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 18W 8D 8L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 15W 6D 13L from 34 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.82 PPG, Genk on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gent have posted 2.12 PPG from 17 outings (11W 3D 3L).
On the road, Genk have gone 5W 3D 9L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.94 scored and 1.38 conceded. Genk's attacking output running into Gent's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Gent have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Genk in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 18W 8D 8L in their last 34 games (1.82 PPG), while Genk have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Genk away?
Gent's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.12 PPG; Genk away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Gent or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Genk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Genk won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gent
5
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 1, Genk have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 53%, Genk 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Gent) and 59% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Gent's games and 65% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Gent's matches and 59% of Genk's.
Do Gent and Genk tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Genk in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat Gent 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Gent 0-1 at GHELAMCO-arena, Conference League Play-off Group - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.96 xG and Genk 1.06 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gent fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.28 / defence 0.87 against Genk attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 58% | Draw 22% | Genk 20%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Genk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 47%, Genk 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.82 PPG, Genk 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.