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Jupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-offs - Final

Kick-off

Sun 31 May 2026

17:30

Venue

Planet Group Arena

Competition

Jupiler Pro League

Belgium

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Gent Win

47%

Gent

2.11

22%

Draw

4.63

31%

Genk

3.24

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

8.9%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

1 – 2

7.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.99

Gent xG

Total xG

3.57

1.58

Genk xG

47%
22%
31%
GentDrawGenk

2.11

47%

Home win

4.63

22%

Draw

3.24

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

87%

Over 1.5

1.15

13%

Under 1.5

7.69

69%

Over 2.5

1.45

31%

Under 2.5

3.23

48%

Over 3.5

2.08

52%

Under 3.5

1.92

29%

Over 4.5

3.45

71%

Under 4.5

1.41

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

68%

BTTS Yes

1.46

32%

BTTS No

3.17

Clean Sheet

21%

Gent

4.85

14%

Genk

7.30

Win to Nil

10%

Gent

10.21

4%

Genk

23.62

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.8 4.5 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.2
1 5.6 8.9 7.0 3.7 1.5 0.5
2 5.6 8.8 7.0 3.7 1.4 0.5
3 3.7 5.8 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.3
4 1.8 2.9 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2
5 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.988
λ Away (xG) 1.578
Total xG 3.566
League avg home goals 1.333
League avg away goals 1.320
Gent attack strength 1.132
Gent defence strength 0.956
Genk attack strength 1.250
Genk defence strength 1.317
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 60