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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Genk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat Gent 1-4 at Planet Group Arena, Championship Round - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.42 xG and Genk 1.31 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Genk outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Genk attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 38% | Draw 30% | Genk 33%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 53%, Genk 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Genk's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.54 PPG, Genk 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights