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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gent edge out Beerschot VA 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent beat Beerschot VA 3-2 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 2.13 xG and Beerschot VA 0.71 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gent beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beerschot VA outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Beerschot VA attack 0.71 / defence 1.29, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 68% | Draw 23% | Beerschot VA 9%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 53%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.65 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights