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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Gent 0-2 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.30 xG and Antwerp 0.74 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gent fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Antwerp outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against Antwerp attack 0.70 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 50% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 21%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Antwerp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 53%, Antwerp 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Antwerp's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.25 PPG, Antwerp 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights