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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gent and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent and Anderlecht finished level at 1-1 at Planet Group Arena, Championship Group - 37, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.84 xG and Anderlecht 1.22 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gent fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Anderlecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 52% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 25%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 51%, Anderlecht 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Anderlecht's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.26 PPG, Anderlecht 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights