Gent 1-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gent host Anderlecht at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 5W 3D 2L at Planet Group Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Anderlecht — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Anderlecht — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Gent have won 0, Anderlecht 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–6 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 56% versus Anderlecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 51% | Anderlecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.19 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.099 / defence 0.997 | Anderlecht attack 1.189 / defence 0.722. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.092. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.722 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Gent games / 53 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 31% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 35%. Fair-value odds: Gent 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Anderlecht 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Gent 50% | Anderlecht 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 31% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Gent 1.19 / Anderlecht 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.099 / def 0.997 | Anderlecht attack 1.189 / def 0.722 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Anderlecht xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Anderlecht kick off?
Gent vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Gent 1 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Gent vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Anderlecht part of?
Gent vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 31% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gent and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
Record (3 meetings): Gent 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in?
Gent (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gent's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
31%
3.26
34%
2.96
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Gent xG
Total xG
2.49
1.29
Anderlecht xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gent and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gent and 1.29 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Gent have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 28W 20D 15L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 33W 17D 13L from 63 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.65 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gent have posted 1.80 PPG from 30 outings (15W 9D 6L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 12W 11D 7L from 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.78 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 28W 20D 15L in their last 63 games (1.65 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 33W 17D 13L in their last 63 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Anderlecht away?
Gent's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.80 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Gent or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2024, when Anderlecht won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gent
2
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 2, Anderlecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gent 1-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gent at 67%, Anderlecht at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Gent and 57% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Gent's games and 67% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Gent's matches and 57% of Anderlecht's.
Do Gent and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gent defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.19 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Anderlecht attack 1.19 / defence 0.72, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 31% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 35%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gent win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 51%, Anderlecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Anderlecht's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.65 PPG, Anderlecht 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.