Gent 1-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gent host Anderlecht at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 6W 3D 1L at Planet Group Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Anderlecht — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 1.70 PPG versus Anderlecht's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 56% versus Anderlecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 59% | Anderlecht 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.66 xG and Anderlecht 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.118 / defence 0.942 | Anderlecht attack 1.223 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.335. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Gent games / 46 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 39% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 34%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Anderlecht 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Gent 100% | Anderlecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 39% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Gent 1.66 / Anderlecht 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.118 / def 0.942 | Anderlecht attack 1.223 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Gent (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Anderlecht xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Anderlecht kick off?
Gent vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Gent 1 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Gent vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Anderlecht part of?
Gent vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 39% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Gent and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in?
Gent (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gent's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.62
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Gent xG
Total xG
3.20
1.54
Anderlecht xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
6%
15.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Gent and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Gent and 1.54 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Gent have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 25W 12D 9L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 21W 10D 15L from 46 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.89 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gent have posted 2.09 PPG from 23 outings (14W 6D 3L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 10W 5D 8L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.63 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 25W 12D 9L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Anderlecht away?
Gent's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.09 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Gent or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2024, when Anderlecht won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gent
2
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 2, Anderlecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gent 1-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 65%, Anderlecht 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Gent) and 48% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Anderlecht in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Gent's games and 48% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Gent's matches and 48% of Anderlecht's.
Do Gent and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Gent and Anderlecht drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.66 xG and Anderlecht 1.54 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.12 / defence 0.94 against Anderlecht attack 1.22 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 39% | Draw 28% | Anderlecht 34%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 59%, Anderlecht 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.89 PPG, Anderlecht 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.