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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Zulte Waregem 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.86 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.12 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 34/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 52% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 21%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 56%, Zulte Waregem 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genk 1.85 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights