Genk 0-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 42%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Genk vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Genk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Union St. Gilloise in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Genk have won 1, Union St. Gilloise 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Genk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 65% and Union St. Gilloise 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genk 67% | Union St. Gilloise 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.73 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.282 / defence 0.903 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.322 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.248. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Genk games / 57 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 42% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 32%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Union St. Gilloise 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | Union St. Gilloise 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 42% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Genk 1.73 / Union St. Gilloise 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.282 / def 0.903 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.322 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Genk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Union St. Gilloise xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Genk 0 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 42% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Genk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (1 meetings): Genk 1W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 0W.
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.28x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.83
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Genk xG
Total xG
3.22
1.49
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
6%
17.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Genk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Genk and 1.49 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Genk have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 34W 17D 12L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 42W 12D 9L from 63 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.89 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.13 PPG from 31 outings (19W 9D 3L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 18W 9D 4L from 31 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.05 scored and 1.17 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Union St. Gilloise in 70%.
Last 63 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 34W 17D 12L in their last 63 games (1.89 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 42W 12D 9L in their last 63 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Genk's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.13 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Genk at 64%, Union St. Gilloise at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Genk and 64% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Genk's games and 77% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Genk's matches and 64% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Genk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union St. Gilloise defy the odds to beat Genk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 0-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.73 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.49 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.28 / defence 0.90 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.32 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 42% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 32%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 67%, Union St. Gilloise 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.89 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.