Genk 0-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Genk at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Standard Liege travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genk stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genk haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genk have posted 5W 1D 4L at Cegeka Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Standard Liege haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Standard Liege's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Genk are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Genk, 2 for Standard Liege and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Genk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Genk trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Standard Liege trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 50% versus Standard Liege 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 48% | Standard Liege 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.54 xG and Standard Liege 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.057 / defence 1.018 | Standard Liege attack 0.985 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 0.976. Data: 30 Genk games / 30 Standard Liege games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 22%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Standard Liege 4.55. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Genk 30% | Standard Liege 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Genk 1.54 / Standard Liege 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.057 / def 1.018 | Standard Liege attack 0.985 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.356 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Genk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Standard Liege xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Standard Liege kick off?
Genk vs Standard Liege kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Standard Liege?
Genk 0 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Genk vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Standard Liege part of?
Genk vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 49% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genk and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Standard Liege?
Record (4 meetings): Genk 2W | Draws 0 | Standard Liege 2W.
What form are Genk and Standard Liege in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Genk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genk's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Standard Liege's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.46
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Genk xG
Total xG
2.52
0.98
Standard Liege xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Genk and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Genk and 0.98 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genk's recent record stands at 15W 12D 13L from 40 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. Genk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 17L across 40 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. Standard Liege haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genk have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 2W 7D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.12 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Pre-Season
Standard Liege
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 8W 15D 17L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Standard Liege away?
Genk's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.70 PPG; Standard Liege away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Genk or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Standard Liege won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
3
Draws
4
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Standard Liege have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Standard Liege?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 45%, Standard Liege 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Genk and 70% for Standard Liege. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Standard Liege?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Genk's games and 75% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Genk's matches and 70% of Standard Liege's.
Do Genk and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Genk and Standard Liege drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.54 xG and Standard Liege 0.98 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Standard Liege landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Standard Liege attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 49% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 22%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 48%, Standard Liege 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Standard Liege's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.