Genk 0-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Genk welcome St. Truiden to Cegeka Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Genk have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Genk) versus 1.80 (St. Truiden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Genk have won 1, St. Truiden 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Genk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus St. Truiden 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 57% | St. Truiden 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.58 xG and St. Truiden 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.359 / defence 0.933 | St. Truiden attack 0.664 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.339. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Genk games / 30 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 55% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 19%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | St. Truiden 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Genk (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genk 60% | St. Truiden 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 55% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Genk 1.58 / St. Truiden 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.359 / def 0.933 | St. Truiden attack 0.664 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Genk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.83
St. Truiden xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Genk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Genk 0 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Genk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs St. Truiden part of?
Genk vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 55% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Genk and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): Genk 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in?
Genk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.36) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.87
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Genk xG
Total xG
2.41
0.83
St. Truiden xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
4%
25.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Genk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Genk and 0.83 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Genk have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 13W 6D 11L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 11W 6D 13L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.50 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Genk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 6W 3D 6L from 15 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.10 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or St. Truiden away?
Genk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.00 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genk and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Genk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Genk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
5
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 4, St. Truiden have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Genk and St. Truiden?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 53%, St. Truiden 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Genk) and 33% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; St. Truiden in 40%; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Genk's recent matches and 40% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Genk's recent games and 33% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Genk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Genk 0-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.58 xG and St. Truiden 0.83 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against St. Truiden attack 0.66 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 55% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 19%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a St. Truiden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 57%, St. Truiden 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.50 PPG, St. Truiden 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.