Genk 1-1 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and RAAL La Louvière meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Genk (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's home record at Cegeka Arena: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RAAL La Louvière's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RAAL La Louvière's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Genk against 1.30 for RAAL La Louvière. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RAAL La Louvière in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
RAAL La Louvière goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus RAAL La Louvière 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 58% | RAAL La Louvière 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.52 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.009 / defence 1.113 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.854 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.096. Data: 41 Genk games / 11 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 47% | Draw 29% | RAAL La Louvière 24%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | RAAL La Louvière 4.17. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | RAAL La Louvière 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 47% | Draw 29% | RAAL La Louvière 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Genk 1.52 / RAAL La Louvière 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.009 / def 1.113 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.854 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Genk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.04
RAAL La Louvière xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Genk vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs RAAL La Louvière?
Genk 1 - 1 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is Genk vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Genk vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 47% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Genk and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and RAAL La Louvière?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and RAAL La Louvière in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.01) and RAAL La Louvière's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RAAL La Louvière's attack (0.85x) against Genk's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.43
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Genk xG
Total xG
2.56
1.04
RAAL La Louvière xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Genk and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Genk and 1.04 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs RAAL La Louvière?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Genk have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 21W 8D 11L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RAAL La Louvière's form line: 21W 12D 7L from 40 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for RAAL La Louvière is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Genk against 1.88 for RAAL La Louvière. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (12W 2D 5L).
On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 9W 5D 5L from 19 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.48 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: RAAL La Louvière in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 21W 12D 7L in their last 40 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
Genk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.00 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Genk or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Genk
2
Draws
0
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and RAAL La Louvière?
From 2 meetings on record, Genk have won 0, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when RAAL La Louvière 5-5 Genk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 47%, RAAL La Louvière 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Genk) and 58% (RAAL La Louvière). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play RAAL La Louvière?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Genk's games and 68% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Genk's matches and 58% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do Genk and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk and RAAL La Louvière share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Genk and RAAL La Louvière drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.52 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.04 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 47% | Draw 29% | RAAL La Louvière 24%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, RAAL La Louvière 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.78 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.