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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Genk and RAAL La Louvière share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Genk and RAAL La Louvière drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.52 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.04 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 47% | Draw 29% | RAAL La Louvière 24%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, RAAL La Louvière 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genk 1.78 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights