🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out OH Leuven 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat OH Leuven 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.35 xG and OH Leuven 0.95 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against OH Leuven attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 45% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 26%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 56%, OH Leuven 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

OH Leuven's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights