🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Genk and KVC Westerlo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Genk and KVC Westerlo drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.71 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.30 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.13 / defence 1.35, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 47% | Draw 24% | KVC Westerlo 29%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, KVC Westerlo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights