Genk 4-0 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Genk welcome Dender to Cegeka Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Cegeka Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Dender have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dender have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Dender have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Genk) versus 1.70 (Dender). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dender in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 51% versus Dender 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 54% | Dender 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.68 xG and Dender 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 0.984 / defence 0.832 | Dender attack 1.136 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.201. Data: 37 Genk games / 7 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 26% | Dender 25%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Dender 4.00. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Genk 30% | Dender 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 26% | Dender 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Genk 1.68 / Dender 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 0.984 / def 0.832 | Dender attack 1.136 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Genk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Dender xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Dender kick off?
Genk vs Dender kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Dender?
Genk 4 - 0 Dender.
Where is Genk vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Dender part of?
Genk vs Dender is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 49% chance of winning, Dender a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genk and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Dender?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Dender in?
Genk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Dender (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (0.98) and Dender's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.89
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Genk xG
Total xG
2.82
1.14
Dender xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Genk and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Genk and 1.14 for Dender, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Genk have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 17W 7D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dender's form line: 18W 11D 8L from 37 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.57 PPG, Dender on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Dender have gone 10W 5D 3L from 18 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.81 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender in 62%.
Defensively: Dender in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Dender in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Dender have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.89 PPG; Dender away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Genk or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dender in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genk and Dender runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Genk have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Genk won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Dender specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Genk
0
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Dender?
From 4 meetings on record, Genk have won 4, Dender have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Dender 1-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Dender?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 39%, Dender 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Genk) and 61% (Dender). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Dender in 33%; Genk have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Dender?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Genk's recent matches and 67% of Dender's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Genk's matches and 61% of Dender's.
Do Genk and Dender tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dender in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Dender 4-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.68 xG and Dender 1.14 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Dender attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 49% | Draw 26% | Dender 25%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 54%, Dender 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Dender's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.57 PPG, Dender 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.