Genk 3-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Charleroi away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Genk's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 57% versus Charleroi 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 57% | Charleroi 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.25 xG and Charleroi 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.335 / defence 0.949 | Charleroi attack 0.943 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.308. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Genk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Genk games / 34 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 62% | Draw 19% | Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Charleroi 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Genk (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Genk 50% | Charleroi 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 4 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 62% | Draw 19% | Charleroi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG Genk 2.25 / Charleroi 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.335 / def 0.949 | Charleroi attack 0.943 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Genk (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Charleroi xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk 3 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Conference League Play-off Group - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 62% chance of winning, Charleroi a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Charleroi in?
Genk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.94x) against Genk's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.14
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Genk xG
Total xG
3.43
1.17
Charleroi xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
2%
50.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Genk and 1.17 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Genk have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 17W 7D 13L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 15W 10D 12L from 37 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Genk against 1.49 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.00 PPG from 18 outings (11W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Genk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.57 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Charleroi in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Genk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Genk or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Charleroi in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 50%, Charleroi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Genk and 78% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Charleroi in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Genk's recent matches and 50% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Genk's matches and 78% of Charleroi's.
Do Genk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Charleroi 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Charleroi 3-2 at Cegeka Arena, Conference League Play-off Group - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.25 xG and Charleroi 1.17 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.33 / defence 0.95 against Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 1.39, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 62% | Draw 19% | Charleroi 19%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 57%, Charleroi 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.57 PPG, Charleroi 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.