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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Genk and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Genk and Antwerp drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.47 xG and Antwerp 0.95 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Antwerp attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Genk 45% | Draw 34% | Antwerp 21%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, Antwerp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Antwerp's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights