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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Genk 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Genk 0-1 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.35 xG and Antwerp 0.73 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Antwerp attack 0.84 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Antwerp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 53%, Antwerp 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Antwerp's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genk 1.76 PPG, Antwerp 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights