Genk 1-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 20 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Antwerp's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Genk. A 0.70 PPG lead over Antwerp (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Genk, 0 for Antwerp and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Genk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Antwerp — key trading statistics (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 62% versus Antwerp 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 63% | Antwerp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.34 xG and Antwerp 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.033 / defence 0.965 | Antwerp attack 1.093 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Data: 64 Genk games / 64 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 39% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 34%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Antwerp 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Genk 40% | Antwerp 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 39% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Genk 1.34 / Antwerp 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.033 / def 0.965 | Antwerp attack 1.093 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Genk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Antwerp xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Antwerp kick off?
Genk vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Genk 1 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Genk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Antwerp part of?
Genk vs Antwerp is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 39% chance of winning, Antwerp a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Genk and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Antwerp?
Record (1 meetings): Genk 1W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 0W.
What form are Genk and Antwerp in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Antwerp (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.03) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.09x) against Genk's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.78
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Genk xG
Total xG
2.58
1.24
Antwerp xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Genk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Genk and 1.24 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genk's recent record stands at 40W 20D 18L from 78 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 40W 18D 20L across 78 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Genk against 1.77 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genk have managed 23W 10D 6L from 39 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 16W 10D 13L across 39 trips, a 1.49 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.64 scored and 0.99 conceded. Genk's scoring rate against Antwerp's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Antwerp in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 40W 20D 18L in their last 78 games (1.79 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 40W 18D 20L in their last 78 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Antwerp away?
Genk's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.03 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Genk or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Antwerp in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
4
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 4, Antwerp have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Genk 0-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Antwerp?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 59%, Antwerp 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Genk) and 44% (Antwerp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 41%; Antwerp in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Genk's recent matches and 36% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Genk's matches and 44% of Antwerp's.
Do Genk and Antwerp tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Antwerp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Antwerp 1-0 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.34 xG and Antwerp 1.24 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Antwerp attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 39% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 34%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 63%, Antwerp 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.79 PPG, Antwerp 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.