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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Anderlecht 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat Anderlecht 2-1 at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.27 xG and Anderlecht 0.91 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against Anderlecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genk 43% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 24%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 52%, Anderlecht 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genk's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Anderlecht's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genk 1.71 PPG, Anderlecht 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights