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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out Dender 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Dender 1-2 at Dender Football Complex, Relegation Group - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.54 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.57 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.87 / defence 1.38 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.86 / defence 1.33, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 37% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 39%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Zulte Waregem 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights