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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dender and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dender and Zulte Waregem finished level at 2-2 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.96 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.18 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.60 / defence 1.08 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 28% | Draw 32% | Zulte Waregem 39%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 52%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dender (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights