Dender 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dender host OH Leuven at DENDER Football Complex in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender's home record at DENDER Football Complex: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OH Leuven — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dender at 0.90 PPG versus OH Leuven's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Dender in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 58% versus OH Leuven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 54% | OH Leuven 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.45 xG and OH Leuven 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.848 / defence 1.454 | OH Leuven attack 0.879 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.038. Data: 13 Dender games / 43 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | OH Leuven 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dender 60% | OH Leuven 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Dender 1.45 / OH Leuven 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.848 / def 1.454 | OH Leuven attack 0.879 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Dender (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.33
OH Leuven xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs OH Leuven kick off?
Dender vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs OH Leuven?
Dender 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Dender vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs OH Leuven part of?
Dender vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 37% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dender and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dender and OH Leuven in?
Dender (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Dender vs OH Leuven?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.85) and OH Leuven's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.17
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dender xG
Total xG
2.78
1.33
OH Leuven xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dender and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dender and 1.33 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dender's recent record stands at 19W 13D 11L from 43 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 17L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dender by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dender have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OH Leuven's away record stands at 3W 9D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dender are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.05 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 19W 13D 11L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 12W 14D 17L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or OH Leuven away?
Dender's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.55 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Dender or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dender and OH Leuven runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
OH Leuven go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2025, when Dender won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dender
2
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and OH Leuven?
From 6 meetings on record, Dender have won 1, OH Leuven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dender and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when OH Leuven 3-2 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Dender and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 59%, OH Leuven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dender) and 41% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; OH Leuven in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Dender's recent matches and 46% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dender's recent games and 41% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dender and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender and OH Leuven finished level at 1-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.45 xG and OH Leuven 1.33 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.85 / defence 1.45 against OH Leuven attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, OH Leuven 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
OH Leuven's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.