Dender 0-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dender Football Complex plays host to Dender versus Lommel United in Jupiler Pro League, Final. Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dender have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dender have posted 2W 1D 7L at Dender Football Complex — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lommel United's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Lommel United have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lommel United are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dender lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Lommel United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dender goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dender 65% and Lommel United 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 62% | Lommel United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.38 xG and Lommel United 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.897 / defence 1.315 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Dender games / 0 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 35% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 40%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Dender 80% | Lommel United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Final | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 35% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Dender 1.38 / Lommel United 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.897 / def 1.315 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Lommel United xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Lommel United kick off?
Dender vs Lommel United kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Lommel United?
Dender 0 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is Dender vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Lommel United part of?
Dender vs Lommel United is a Final fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 35% chance of winning, Lommel United a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dender and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Lommel United?
Record (7 meetings): Dender 2W | Draws 2 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are Dender and Lommel United in?
Dender (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Lommel United (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dender's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (0.85x) against Dender's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
35%
2.84
25%
4.00
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Dender xG
Total xG
2.85
1.48
Lommel United xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dender and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Dender and 1.48 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Dender have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 5W 8D 21L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Lommel United's form line: 13W 6D 15L from 34 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dender have posted 0.62 PPG from 16 outings (2W 4D 10L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 8W 1D 7L from 16 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dender are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.38 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Lommel United in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Current Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 5W 8D 21L in their last 34 games (0.68 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 13W 6D 15L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 0.62 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 1-4 on 12 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dender
3
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Lommel United?
From 8 meetings on record, Dender have won 2, Lommel United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Dender 0-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 69%, Lommel United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Dender and 69% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Dender's games and 56% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Dender's matches and 69% of Lommel United's.
Do Dender and Lommel United tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dender's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender and Lommel United finished level at 0-0 at Dender Football Complex, Final, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.38 xG and Lommel United 1.48 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dender fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lommel United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 35% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 40%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 62%, Lommel United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lommel United's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.