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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dender and KVC Westerlo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 16, as Dender and KVC Westerlo drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.29 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.42 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.74 / defence 1.17 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.17 / defence 1.31, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 33% | Draw 27% | KVC Westerlo 39%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, KVC Westerlo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dender 0.96 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dender (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights