Dender vs KVC Westerlo – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dender's attack at 0.79x the league average against KVC Westerlo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KVC Westerlo's attack (1.02x) against Dender's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
32%
3.08
32%
3.09
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Dender xG
Total xG
2.81
1.43
KVC Westerlo xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dender and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Dender and 1.43 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.