Dender 4-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Dender welcome Kortrijk to DENDER Football Complex. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Dender have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Dender have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dender at DENDER Football Complex this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DENDER Football Complex.
Kortrijk — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Dender) versus 1.60 (Kortrijk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Dender in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Kortrijk in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 59% versus Kortrijk 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 53% | Kortrijk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 0.93 xG and Kortrijk 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.725 / defence 0.966 | Kortrijk attack 1.040 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.148. Dender's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Dender games / 32 Kortrijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dender 29% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 41%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Kortrijk 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dender 40% | Kortrijk 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 29% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Dender 0.93 / Kortrijk 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.725 / def 0.966 | Kortrijk attack 1.040 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Kortrijk xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Kortrijk kick off?
Dender vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Kortrijk?
Dender 4 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Dender vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Kortrijk part of?
Dender vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 29% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dender and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dender and Kortrijk in?
Dender (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.72) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
29%
3.46
30%
3.29
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Dender xG
Total xG
2.08
1.15
Kortrijk xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.4 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dender and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Dender and 1.15 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dender come into this having played 32 games, going 16W 10D 6L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (11W 5D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dender carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dender's home form reads 7W 6D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Dender have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 16W 10D 6L in their last 32 games (1.81 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 11W 5D 16L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Kortrijk away?
Dender's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.69 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Dender or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dender
0
Draws
0
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Kortrijk?
From 2 meetings on record, Dender have won 2, Kortrijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Kortrijk 0-3 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Kortrijk?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 56%, Kortrijk 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dender) and 44% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kortrijk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dender's recent matches and 38% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dender's recent games and 44% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dender run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Kortrijk 4-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.93 xG and Kortrijk 1.15 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Kortrijk attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dender 29% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 41%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Kortrijk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Kortrijk's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dender (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.