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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gent cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dender.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent beat Dender 1-3 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.42 xG and Gent 1.84 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gent outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.91 / defence 1.35 against Gent attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 30% | Draw 23% | Gent 48%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, Gent 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Gent's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dender 0.93 PPG, Gent 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights