Dender 2-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Conference League Play-off Group - 5 sees Charleroi travel to DENDER Football Complex to take on Dender. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 April 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dender at DENDER Football Complex this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Charleroi — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dender 0.90 PPG, Charleroi 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dender, 1 for Charleroi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 0–5 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dender in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 58% versus Charleroi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 53% | Charleroi 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 0.99 xG and Charleroi 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.634 / defence 1.064 | Charleroi attack 1.081 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Dender's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Dender games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 26% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 41%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Charleroi 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dender 40% | Charleroi 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 5 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 26% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Dender 0.99 / Charleroi 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.634 / def 1.064 | Charleroi attack 1.081 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Charleroi kick off?
Dender vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Dender 2 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Dender vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Charleroi part of?
Dender vs Charleroi is a Conference League Play-off Group - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 26% chance of winning, Charleroi a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dender and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Dender 1W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are Dender and Charleroi in?
Dender (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.63) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
26%
3.79
33%
3.05
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Dender xG
Total xG
2.27
1.28
Charleroi xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dender and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Dender and 1.28 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dender's recent record stands at 24W 19D 21L from 64 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 26L across 64 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dender on 1.42 PPG, Charleroi on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dender have managed 12W 11D 9L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 8W 8D 16L across 32 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dender are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 24W 19D 21L in their last 64 games (1.42 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 24W 14D 26L in their last 64 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Charleroi away?
Dender's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.47 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dender or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Charleroi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dender and Charleroi runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dender
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Charleroi?
From 6 meetings on record, Dender have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 53%, Charleroi 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Dender) and 47% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charleroi in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Dender's recent matches and 47% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Dender's recent games and 47% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Charleroi tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dender defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Charleroi 2-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Conference League Play-off Group - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.99 xG and Charleroi 1.28 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.63 / defence 1.06 against Charleroi attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 26% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 41%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.42 PPG, Charleroi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.