🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dender.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Dender 1-3 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.04 xG and Antwerp 1.29 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.78 / defence 1.24 against Antwerp attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 26% | Draw 36% | Antwerp 38%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 52%, Antwerp 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Antwerp's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dender 1.62 PPG, Antwerp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights