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Shock result as Union St. Gilloise defy the odds to beat Club Brugge KV 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Club Brugge KV 0-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Championship Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 1.58 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.56 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Club Brugge KV fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.38 / defence 1.12 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.25 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 37% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 36%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 62%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Club Brugge KV 1.97 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights