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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Standard Liege defy the odds to beat Club Brugge KV 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat Club Brugge KV 1-2 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 2.30 xG and Standard Liege 0.95 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Club Brugge KV fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Standard Liege outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.39 / defence 0.99 against Standard Liege attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 66% | Draw 22% | Standard Liege 12%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Standard Liege win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 62%, Standard Liege 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Standard Liege's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Standard Liege winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights