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Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge KV edge out Charleroi 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Club Brugge KV beat Charleroi 1-0 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 2.21 xG and Charleroi 1.23 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Club Brugge KV fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.32 / defence 1.06 against Charleroi attack 1.12 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 58% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 19%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 54%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights