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Club Brugge KV cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Club Brugge KV beat Charleroi 4-2 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 1.73 xG and Charleroi 1.27 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Club Brugge KV beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.30 / defence 1.11 against Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 46% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 26%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 63%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights