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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Club Brugge KV 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Club Brugge KV 0-1 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 1.54 xG and Antwerp 0.63 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Club Brugge KV fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.25 / defence 0.94 against Antwerp attack 0.66 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 58% | Draw 28% | Antwerp 14%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Antwerp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 53%, Antwerp 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Antwerp's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Antwerp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights