Charleroi 3-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 8 April 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Zulte Waregem (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Charleroi's favour (1.80 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Charleroi 2W, Zulte Waregem 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus Zulte Waregem 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 63% | Zulte Waregem 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.66 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.838 / defence 0.830 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.966 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.318. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Charleroi games / 65 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 51% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 24%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Zulte Waregem 4.17. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 30% | Zulte Waregem 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 51% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Charleroi 1.66 / Zulte Waregem 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.838 / def 0.830 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.966 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Zulte Waregem xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Charleroi 3 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 51% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Charleroi and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.84x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.97x) against Charleroi's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.98
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.71
1.06
Zulte Waregem xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
5%
22.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.06 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 29W 11D 25L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 13W 17D 35L from 65 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (14W 5D 13L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 9D 18L from 32 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.28 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 29W 11D 25L in their last 65 games (1.51 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 17D 35L in their last 65 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Charleroi's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.47 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zulte Waregem go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 41%, Zulte Waregem 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charleroi) and 56% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 31% of games; Zulte Waregem in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Charleroi's recent matches and 59% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Charleroi's matches and 56% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Charleroi and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Zulte Waregem 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.66 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.06 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.84 / defence 0.83 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.97 / defence 1.26, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 51% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 24%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 63%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.