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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Charleroi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Charleroi 1-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 2.09 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.28 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.15 / defence 1.38, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 55% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 22%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Zulte Waregem win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, Zulte Waregem 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.64 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights