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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Standard Liege.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Standard Liege 2-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.06 xG and Standard Liege 0.91 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Standard Liege landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Standard Liege attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 30%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 45%, Standard Liege 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Standard Liege's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.42 PPG, Standard Liege 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights