Charleroi 1-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Conference League Play-off Group - 2 sees Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.10 PPG, Standard Liege 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charleroi, 1 for Standard Liege and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Standard Liege trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus Standard Liege 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 42% | Standard Liege 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.43 xG and Standard Liege 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.889 / defence 0.909 | Standard Liege attack 0.875 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.113. Data: 60 Charleroi games / 60 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 21%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Standard Liege 4.76. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 50% | Standard Liege 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 2 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Charleroi 1.43 / Standard Liege 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.889 / def 0.909 | Standard Liege attack 0.875 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Standard Liege xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 1 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Conference League Play-off Group - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Record (4 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 3 | Standard Liege 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.89) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.19
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.31
0.89
Standard Liege xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
19.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.89 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 22W 17D 28L from 67 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 25L across 67 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.24 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 14W 9D 10L from 33 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 5W 11D 17L across 33 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.01 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 17D 28L in their last 67 games (1.24 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 18W 24D 25L in their last 67 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.55 PPG; Standard Liege away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
3
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Standard Liege have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Standard Liege 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Charleroi) and 64% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Standard Liege in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Standard Liege?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charleroi's games and 58% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Charleroi's recent games and 64% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Standard Liege 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Standard Liege 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.43 xG and Standard Liege 0.89 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Standard Liege attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 21%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 42%, Standard Liege 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liege's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.24 PPG, Standard Liege 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.