Charleroi vs St. Truiden – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Charleroi have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, St. Truiden in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Charleroi: 5 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for St. Truiden, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with Charleroi winning.
The historical record gives Charleroi a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus St. Truiden 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | St. Truiden 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 3.08 xG and St. Truiden 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.364 / defence 1.145 | St. Truiden attack 1.309 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 3.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St. Truiden have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Charleroi games / 40 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 60% | Draw 16% | St. Truiden 24%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.67 | Draw 6.25 | St. Truiden 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 88% | BTTS probability 83% | Total xG 5.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 88% — a total xG of 5.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 83% reflects that both xG figures (3.08 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 5.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 88% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 83% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | St. Truiden 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 60% | Draw 16% | St. Truiden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 88% | BTTS 83% | xG Charleroi 3.08 / St. Truiden 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.364 / def 1.145 | St. Truiden attack 1.309 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.08
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
2.01
St. Truiden xG
83%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs St. Truiden kick off?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs St. Truiden part of?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 60% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 24% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 83% probability that both Charleroi and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 88%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 5W | Draws 3 | St. Truiden 2W.
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.08. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-2, at 6.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (6.0%), 2-2 (5.9%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 18% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
60%
1.68
16%
6.08
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 2
6.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.0%
Home win
2 – 1
5.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.08
Charleroi xG
Total xG
5.09
2.01
St. Truiden xG
1.68
60%
Home win
6.08
16%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
88%
Over 2.5
1.14
12%
Under 2.5
8.33
75%
Over 3.5
1.33
25%
Under 3.5
4.00
57%
Over 4.5
1.75
43%
Under 4.5
2.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
83%
BTTS Yes
1.21
17%
BTTS No
5.76
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
5%
21.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
1%
90.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 3-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 3.08 expected goals for Charleroi and 2.01 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 5.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 9D 19L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.58 PPG from 50 outings (24W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.50 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charleroi's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.36 points per game from 25 outings (10W 4D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.58 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 24W 7D 19L in their last 50 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or St. Truiden away?
Charleroi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Charleroi or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 64%, St. Truiden 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Charleroi) and 56% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Charleroi's games and 60% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Charleroi's recent games and 56% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.