Charleroi 2-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 0.80 PPG versus St. Truiden's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Charleroi, 2 for St. Truiden and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 4–1 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 46% versus St. Truiden 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | St. Truiden 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.69 xG and St. Truiden 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.750 / defence 0.932 | St. Truiden attack 0.951 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.008. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Charleroi games / 48 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 53% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 16%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | St. Truiden 6.25. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 30% | St. Truiden 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 53% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Charleroi 1.69 / St. Truiden 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.750 / def 0.932 | St. Truiden attack 0.951 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.89
St. Truiden xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs St. Truiden kick off?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi 2 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Charleroi vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs St. Truiden part of?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 53% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charleroi and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Record (7 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 2W.
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
53%
1.90
31%
3.23
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.58
0.89
St. Truiden xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
3%
32.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.89 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 12D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.19 PPG from 54 outings (15W 19D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.22 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charleroi's home form reads 12W 7D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Charleroi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 0.65 points per game from 26 outings (3W 8D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.24 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 15W 19D 20L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or St. Truiden away?
Charleroi's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.65 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, St. Truiden 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Charleroi) and 58% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; St. Truiden in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charleroi's games and 58% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Charleroi's recent games and 58% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out St. Truiden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat St. Truiden 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.69 xG and St. Truiden 0.89 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.75 / defence 0.93 against St. Truiden attack 0.95 / defence 1.36, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 53% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 16%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, St. Truiden 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.22 PPG, St. Truiden 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.