Charleroi vs SK Beveren – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Charleroi at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs SK Beveren encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SK Beveren make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.

SK Beveren (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 1.40 PPG lead over SK Beveren (2.40 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, SK Beveren in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

SK Beveren goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus SK Beveren 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | SK Beveren 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 3.44 xG and SK Beveren 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.364 / defence 1.145 | SK Beveren attack 0.836 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 3.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Charleroi games / 10 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 78% | Draw 12% | SK Beveren 10%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.28 | Draw 8.33 | SK Beveren 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (78%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (3.44 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 4.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 85% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | SK Beveren 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights