Charleroi 2-0 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Seraing United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Seraing United meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Seraing United have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Seraing United have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Charleroi's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Seraing United's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charleroi lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Seraing United half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 44% versus Seraing United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 60% | Seraing United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.46 xG and Seraing United 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.797 / defence 1.022 | Seraing United attack 0.703 / defence 1.645. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.470. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Seraing United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.645 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Charleroi games / 25 Seraing United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 46% | Draw 26% | Seraing United 27%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Seraing United 3.70. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 30% | Seraing United 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Seraing United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 46% | Draw 26% | Seraing United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Charleroi 1.46 / Seraing United 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.797 / def 1.022 | Seraing United attack 0.703 / def 1.645 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Seraing United xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Seraing United kick off?
Charleroi vs Seraing United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Seraing United?
Charleroi 2 - 0 Seraing United.
Where is Charleroi vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Seraing United part of?
Charleroi vs Seraing United is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 46% chance of winning, Seraing United a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and Seraing United will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Seraing United?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Seraing United 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Seraing United in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Seraing United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Seraing United's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Seraing United's attack (0.70x) against Charleroi's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.80
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.51
1.06
Seraing United xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.06 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Seraing United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi's recent record stands at 11W 7D 7L from 25 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seraing United, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 16L across 25 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seraing United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seraing United's away record stands at 2W 0D 10L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Seraing United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 1.04 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Seraing United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Seraing United in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 11W 7D 7L in their last 25 games (1.60 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 7W 2D 16L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Seraing United away?
Charleroi's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.33 PPG; Seraing United away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Seraing United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Seraing United in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Seraing United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Charleroi
0
Draws
0
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Seraing United?
From 4 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Seraing United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Seraing United last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Charleroi 3-0 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Seraing United?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 33%, Seraing United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Charleroi) and 75% (Seraing United).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 42% of games; Seraing United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Seraing United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Charleroi's recent matches and 50% of Seraing United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Seraing United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Charleroi's recent games and 75% of Seraing United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Seraing United tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Seraing United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Seraing United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Seraing United 2-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.46 xG and Seraing United 1.06 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Seraing United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Seraing United attack 0.70 / defence 1.65, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 46% | Draw 26% | Seraing United 27%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 60%, Seraing United 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Seraing United's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.