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Stalemate at Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 16, as Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.54 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.82 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.5 short of their projected output. RAAL La Louvière landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 53% | Draw 28% | RAAL La Louvière 19%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 48%, RAAL La Louvière 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.48 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights