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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 39, as Charleroi and OH Leuven drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.41 xG and OH Leuven 1.40 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against OH Leuven attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 37% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 37%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

OH Leuven's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.38 PPG, OH Leuven 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights