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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out OH Leuven 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat OH Leuven 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.37 xG and OH Leuven 0.82 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against OH Leuven attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 20%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, OH Leuven 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

OH Leuven's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.33 PPG, OH Leuven 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights