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Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out KVC Westerlo 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 4-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.40 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KVC Westerlo outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 42% | Draw 31% | KVC Westerlo 27%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, KVC Westerlo 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.32 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights